Predictions for the World by Yehezkel Dror

About Israeli political scientist Yehezkel Dror and his predictions about the future of the world.

Predictor: YEHEZKEL DROR

Yehezkel Dror, the distinguished Israeli political scientist, teaches at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a former member of the Rand Corporation, in Santa Monica, Calif. His most recent book is Crazy States.

Past Predictions: No record.

Future Predictions: No Dates Given

--Dror believes that the phenomenon of nations' and political action groups' "going crazy," as Nazi Germany did in the 1930s and the Christian Crusaders did in the Middle Ages, will become increasingly more common in the future. He suggests several possible scenarios:

--In the U.S., a wave of civil violence aimed at schools, public facilities, government officials, municipal transportation systems, and prominent industrialists throws the population into chaos. The Government's ability to control the unrest deteriorates to the point of quavering helplessness while the population is dangerously polarized into 2 groups--one which advocates all-out violence, and one which promotes absolute pacifism. In the meantime, a presidential candidate emerges who vows to clean up the bureaucratic hodgepodge and get the country back on its feet. He is charismatic and convincing, and he is elected. The new President uses Soviet belligerence in the Middle East as an excuse to suppress civil liberties in the U.S. and set up martial law. Dissent is suppressed, minorities are oppressed, and stepping up the country's nuclear 1st-strike capability is given top priority. The nation, now a totalitarian State, is seized by a collective mania for wiping communism off the face of the earth.

--A Sukarno-like military dictator assumes power in Indonesia and infuses the population with a passion for territorial expansion in the Far East. The armed forces are beefed up enormously, an atomic weapons development program is established, and the leader tightens his already viselike grip on what is an all but omnipotent political machine. There is Indonesian terrorist infiltration into bordering nations, and Indonesia's bellicosity is supported by the Soviet Union. The nation threatens to conquer all of the East Indies--including Malaysia, Singapore, New Guinea, and the Philippines--and makes inroads into Australia.

--Chaotic economic and political conditions give rise to a general strike in France, and an atmosphere of violence and terror. From it all, a political junta consisting of generals and high-ranking civil servants takes over and restores order through sheer physical force. France pursues an aggressive, almost hostile foreign policy aimed at destroying the European Common Market, isolating the U.S. from Europe, and establishing a United Europe with France as the dominant power.

--A resurgence of Mexican nationalism and anti-U.S. feeling culminates in Mexican demands that the U.S. return California and Texas to Mexico. The sentiment spreads quickly through Latin America, fueled in part by a series of incidents in which Mexican-Americans are injured. There is widespread terrorist activity in the U.S.

--State power in the oil-rich nation of Kuwait is seized by a band of Islamic religious zealots who seek world domination. Important policy decisions are made by a small coterie of power-holders during drug-induced trances. Kuwait's income from oil increases, and the Government uses its vast revenues to strengthen its army, steal weapons secrets from other countries, and build up a nuclear capability and a missile arsenal.

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